RBA Minutes and CPI Set an AUD Volatility Test
Conclusion: AUD traders face a two-step Australian calendar test: RBA minutes on Tuesday, then July CPI on Wednesday. The minutes explain the Bank's thinking; CPI can test whether its August decision to hold at 4.35% remains defensible.
Sydney-time calendar
The RBA schedules minutes of its August Monetary Policy Board meeting for Tuesday, August 25 at 11:30 a.m. AEST. The Australian Bureau of Statistics schedules July CPI for Wednesday, August 26 at 11:30 a.m. AEST. Both releases land during the Sydney session.
| Event | Sydney time | What is factual | What remains unknown |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA minutes | Tue 11:30 a.m. AEST | Explains the August meeting | How markets will interpret the tone |
| July CPI | Wed 11:30 a.m. AEST | Official monthly inflation release | The result before publication |
| Private capex + household spending | Thu 11:30 a.m. AEST | Both are on the ABS calendar | Whether they confirm demand resilience |
Why the sequence matters
On August 11, the RBA unanimously held the cash rate at 4.35%. It said policy was somewhat restrictive, inflation remained too high, and a further increase could be required if upside risks materialised. That makes the minutes a guide to the Board's risk balance—not a fresh policy decision.
- Minutes more concerned about inflation + firm CPI: would reinforce the risk of further tightening.
- Balanced minutes + softer CPI: could reduce the urgency of another increase.
- Mixed signals: may shift attention to labour demand, household spending and global risk sentiment.
Those are conditional interpretations. No CPI outcome or AUD direction should be stated as known before release.
Latest YouTube lens
Empower Wealth's August RBA livestream discusses the hold and the possibility of a later hike from an Australian household and property perspective. It is contextual analysis; policy facts come from the RBA and event times from the official calendars.
Sources
- RBA: coming-up calendar
- RBA monetary policy decision, Aug. 11
- ABS August 2026 release calendar
- IG week-ahead calendar, Aug. 24
Research note: X and Google News were screened for leads. Unverified posts and comments were not used. This is market analysis, not personalised investment advice.
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